Brussels, Belgium, Feb. 16 (IPS)— Introduction of restrictions
looks increasingly more likely in order to block a surge of labour from
new European Union (EU) states to the old after enlargement May 1.
Member states of the EU can restrict inflow of workers from eight of
the ten new member states for seven years following enlargement. Only
after 2011 will member states have to allow free movement of citizens,
goods and capital.
The restrictions will not apply to workers from Cyprus and Malta, but
can be enforced against the other eight: the Czech Republic, Estonia,
Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Slovakia and Slovenia.
British authorities decided last week to close doors to new EU labor.
Germany and Austria which would be the main destination countries are
also considering full restrictions. Denmark and Sweden plan restrictions
on social security benefits for new labor, and for entry only with work
permits for specific jobs.
Other countries are considering quotas. The Dutch government has set
a quota at 22,000 workers until 2006.
Ireland is the only EU country following an open labor policy. It is
expected to get the highest per capita number of new migrants. But precise
estimates of the inflow of new migrants after May 1 will be difficult,
say officials from the European Commission, the administrative authority
for implementing EU decisions.
New members are putting in place their own restrictions on movement
of labor from outside the enlarged EU. Hungary has announced a tightening
of security measures along its 68 mile border with Ukraine, Croatia,
Serbia, and Romania. Authorities say they fear an influx of workers
indirectly from Poland and Slovakia. Unemployment in each of these countries
stands at 18 percent.
With an average income substantially below the EU average in the new
states, the pressure on employment on the existing member states is
bound to grow, officials acknowledge.
“One should not criticize the member states exercising the right
to impose restrictions if they wish to do so,” says Jean Christophe
Filori, spokesman for Commissioner for Enlargement Guenther Verheugen.
The European Commission is planning counter-measures to boost growth
and development within the new states, particularly in agriculture.
The bulk of economic activity in the new member states was based on
agriculture until the new moves towards service-based industries.
The low labor cost in the new member states can also boost manufacturing
industries in these countries, leading to better employment, officials
say. Fear of preferential treatment of domestic over migrant workers
can also keep many workers from attempting to migrate in a rush, they
say.
Eastern workers would want to head west to access the big EU internal
market and its wealth, Nannette Ripmeester, a Rotterdam-based expert
on labor mobility told the Brussels-based newswire Euractiv. On the
other hand, eastern markets might appeal to western workers in view
of new opportunities and lower living costs. This two-way process could
finally lead to self-regulation of the EU market, Ripmeester said.
Expectations for the general economic situation after enlargement remains
high within the present 15 member states, a European Commission Business
and Economic survey in January 2004 shows.
Old members could gain an inflow of skills, capital, goods, an enlarged
internal market, economic growth, and cultural and social enrichment.
For new entrants, Community benefits for recognition of qualifications
and coordination of social security systems would no longer be an unattainable
goal.
Daniel Gros from the Center for European Policy Studies in Brussels
says that a need to narrow the per capita GDP means that a degree of
migration will follow. He does not expect a large shift of the labor
population.
