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Explosions in Bangladesh lead to violent
general strike
Compiled by Josh Ferguson
Aug. 25 (AGR)-- Wed., Aug. 25 marked the end of a bloody two-day
general strike initiated by Bangladeshs Awami League, in protest
of a deadly grenade attack on that groups Aug. 21 rally.
The 200,000 person assembly was called to protest recent political violence
in the country. Led by former prime minister Sheikh Hasina Wajed, the
Awami League blames the Bangladesh Nationalist Party, the countrys
current ruling party, for fostering political violence through corruption
and incompetence. Wajed was midway through an impassioned speech when
assailants threw thirteen hand grenades, killing 19 and injuring 200.
Wajed herself suffered only minor injuries from bullets fired on her
car as she was leaving. Her bodyguard was killed.
A series of grenades went off at five- to seven-second intervals
giving the attackers smoke cover; as she was rushed away by bodyguards,
her bullet-proof car was hit by at least seven bullets, said Sabir
Husayn Chowdhury, Sheikh Hasinas political secretary.
Only the fact the vehicle was bullet-proof saved her, he
said, it was total carnage, worse than a scene from a war film,
with bodies, limbs and blood everywhere.
In response to the attack, the Awami League called for a two day general
strike for Aug. 24 and Aug. 25 in protest of the attack. Demands were
made that the current prime minister, Khaleda Zia, resign. The strike
brought violence all across Bangladesh, as crowds of Wajed supporters
torched commuter trains, destroyed parked cars, and looted government
buildings. The protest shut down shops and schools and disrupted traffic
across the country, and the capital city of Dhaka had over 7,000 police
and paramilitary on hand to subdue protests there. Over 200 people were
arrested, and many more were tear gassed and clubbed with police batons.
Witnesses reported that the violence broke out after police tried to
block hundreds of protesters from taking to the streets. Demonstrators
waved clenched fists and shouted, Down with the government!
The strike came to an early end on Aug. 25, closing at 1:00pm instead
of at sunset, as was originally planned. The early close was arranged
to enable supporters to attend the funeral of Ivy Rahman, head of the
Awami Leagues womens wing and veteran grassroots leader.
Rahman died on Aug. 24 after losing her legs in Saturdays attack.
About 15,000 party supporters, reciting verses from the Koran, accompanied
Rahmans wooden, flower-strewn coffin to a cemetery after prayers
at Dhakas Baitul Mokarram mosque. Police in riot gear stood behind
steel barricades as mourners poured out of the mosque, but there was
no reported violence.
Although the strike has come to an end, further protests are planned
for Aug. 26.
On Aug. 25, the widely read Bengali newspaper, Prothom Alo, reported
that a group calling itself Himatul Zihad had claimed responsibility
for the attacks, and had said in an e-mail that it was planning a fresh
attempt on Sheikh Hasinas life within a week.
Dont think that Sheikh Hasina is out of danger. We have
failed to use our opportunity, but to fulfill our goal, now we are alert,
the message reportedly read. Tell her to be prepared, we are coming
and within the next seven days we will reach our goal. This is our promise.
Police have said that they have not heard of the group Himatul Zihad,
but are currently investigating.
US Secretary of State Colin Powell issued a statement in Washington
over the weekend condemning the attack and calling for calm.
The perpetrators of this heinous act clearly intend to undermine
democracy in Bangladesh, Powell said. They must not succeed.
The US urges all parties to act with restraint, he added.
Bangladesh has seen a number of bombings in recent years at opposition
rallies, in cinemas, concerts, and minority religious institutions.
Earlier this month, two explosions within a week in the city claimed
one life each. In June, another explosion killed one person and injured
about 50 others. And in May, a bomb exploded outside a mosque in Sylhet,
killing three people, while in January four people died in a blast at
a 700-year-old shrine.
In the past five years, at least 134 people have died in bombings, Dhakas
New Age daily said. Two Bangladeshi presidents were assassinated in
military coups and there have been 19 failed coups since independence
from Pakistan in 1971.
Sources: Al jazeera, AFP, AP, Independent
(UK), Reuters
Maldives unrest worries international
community
By Feizal Samath
Colombo, Maldives, Aug. 19 (IPS) Maldives President Maumoon
Abdul Gayoom, Asias longest running autocratic leader, is under
international pressure to stop the crackdown on pro-democracy protesters
in the Indian Ocean archipelago.
Colombo-based diplomats, who declined to be named, said a high-powered
European Union delegation from EU-member missions based in Colombo was
expected to fly to the capital Male at the weekend to urge the Maldives
government to stop its harassment of political opponents.
Gayooms government, which does not allow opposition political
parties in the country, justified the crackdown and the state of emergency
saying it was in danger of being toppled.
Gayoom has to step down. Thats the only way, Mohamed
Latheef, founder and spokesperson for the Maldivian Democratic Party
(MDP), told IPS. The MDP is a political party in exile based in the
Sri Lankan capital -- which is just an hours flight away from
Male.
Latheefs call has been echoed by many young Maldivians, some of
whom recently carried banners saying, Gayoom Should Quit
a rare sight in a nation of some 340,000 people living for 25
years under a one-party government headed by Gayoom.
The Maldives government ordered a crackdown after political dissidence
snowballed last week when protesters took to the streets demanding democracy
and calling for the release of all political prisoners. Curfew has been
declared in the Indian Ocean archipelago, which is now under a state
of emergency.
The British-owned telecommunications firm, Cable and Wireless
which handles Internet access in the Maldives has confirmed that
the government severed all internet connections on Aug. 13.
This grave and irresponsible step is unprecedented anywhere in
the world and President Gayoom has embarked on a spiral of repression
that is extremely worrying, the Paris-based media watchdog Reporters
Sans Frontieres said in a statement.
Some members of Parliament are among the 90 people believed to have
been arrested after the demonstrations. The former secretary-general
of the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC), Ibrahim
Husein Zaki, is one of those currently detained by Gayooms government.
Both Britain and the United States on Aug. 17 criticized the crackdown
and raised concerns about the state of emergency.
A Foreign Office statement said the British government was concerned
by reports of large numbers of arrests, including of members of the
Maldives parliament.
The US government expressed concern that recent unrest in the Maldives
would undermine the Indian Ocean archipelagos commitment to democratic
reforms, and called for those arrested during anti-government demonstrations
to be treated humanely.
The United States notes with concern recent unrest in the Maldives
connected to the Aug. 12-13 demonstrations on the capital island, Male,
said a State Department statement.
We hope that the government of Maldives reaction to these
demonstrations, including subsequent arrests of protesters and political
leaders will not undermine the process of political and constitutional
reform to which the government of the Maldives has committed itself,
the statement added.
The United States also calls for all detainees to be treated humanely,
fairly, and in accordance with the Maldivian Constitution and international
norms of human rights, Deputy State Department Spokesman Adam
Ereli said in the statement.
Latheef, a former member of Parliament, founded the MDP in Colombo after
his 31-year-old activist daughter was arrested by police on Sept. 21,
2003 for wearing a T-shirt which said Stop Brutality.
He took the first flight out of Male the next day and has not returned
since fearing that he would be jailed for forming the pro-democracy
party which has the support of many of the countrys top residents
including MPs, businessmen, civil society activists, and some sections
of the judiciary.
Gayoom should pave the way for democracy and change, he
said adding that while the pro-democracy movement is moving towards
an ouster of the Maldivian president it was not out for vengeance.
We are looking at the South African-type truth and reconciliation
model. We want a peaceful transition, Latheef pointed out.
Following large-scale demonstrations calling for democratic reforms
in September 2003, Gayoom announced measures to reform the political
and judicial systems and bring the criminal justice system into conformity
with fair trial standards.
Tensions, however, emerged in July when many MPs accused Gayoom of reneging
on his September 2003 promises. These tensions then culminated into
last weeks mass demonstrations.
But observers point to the fact that unless economic pressure is exerted
on Maldives, it will be business-as-usual for Gayoom.
Gayoom has attributed the economic boom since he took office to his
policy of encouraging wealthy Westerners to stay at the Maldives
upmarket island resorts.
Maldives economy is dependent on tourism, which accounts for 20
percent of GDP and brings in 60 percent of foreign exchange revenue.
But last weeks demonstrations have had little impact on tourist
arrivals. Visitors who arrive at the countrys only airport situated
on another small island near Male, are whisked by boat or seaplanes
to their destinations far away from the capital.
Tourism has been unaffected by the incidents in Male, noted
Gehan Perera, a spokesman for Sri Lankas Aitken Spence group which
has a couple of top-class resorts in the Maldives.
However if the situation escalates and if there is an international
dimension, then there would be some problems, Perera told IPS.
Niranjan Deva Addithya, member of the European Parliament, urged tourists
not to visit the Maldives saying that by doing so they would be supporting
a tyrannical regime.
The 77,400 British, 106,451 Italian, and 77,642 German tourists,
who visited the Maldives in the past year alone, paying an average of
$200 a night in plush hotels, are supporting a tyrannical regime while
329,000 people are scrounging out an existence on less than one dollar
a day, the Sri Lankan-born MP who lives in Britain was quoted
as saying.
US deal ‘wrecks Middle East peace’
By Conal Urquhart
Tel Aviv, Israel, Aug. 23 The US was yesterday accused
by Palestinian leaders of destroying hopes for peace in the Middle
East by giving its covert support to Israels expansion of controversial
settlements in the West Bank.
American officials are privately admitting they have abandoned their
demands that Israel freeze settlement activity, and have given Jerusalem
tacit permission to build thousands of new homes on the disputed land.
Palestinians fear that the expansion of settlements will make it impossible
to establish a viable state on the land Israel took from Jordan in
the 1967 war.
Ahmed Qureia, the Palestinian prime minister, said the US position
would destroy the peace process, and Amr Moussa, secretary general
of the Arab League, said Americas unilateral redrawing of the
road map was a very grave development.
Publicly, the US still upholds the road map, which calls for a freeze
on all settlement activity, including natural growth. But the administration,
partly out of frustration with Yasser Arafat, has adopted a position
more sympathetic to Israel.
The US has effectively endorsed the Israeli prime minister Ariel Sharons
view of the division of the West Bank. Sharon believes Israel should
pull out of Gaza and keep the large settlement blocks such as Ariel,
Gush Etzion and Maale Adumim.
The first indication of a shift in US policy happened in March when
President George W. Bush and Sharon exchanged letters. The Israeli
leader said he planned to withdraw from settlements in Gaza and the
northern West Bank and Bush replied that the US recognized that the
Israeli population centers (the large settlements) in the West Bank
would remain Israeli and would not become part of a Palestinian state.
Then in a series of meetings between Israeli and US officials, particularly
Condoleezza Rice, the national security adviser, and Dov Weissglas,
Sharons adviser, maps were drawn indicating where construction
could take place.
The latest sign of a significant move came last week when Israel invited
tenders to build more than 1,000 homes in the West Bank. The White
House did not criticize the announcement.
A western diplomat said yesterday: The road map calls for a
freeze in all settlement activity. End of story.
The Israelis have never accepted that and the US has tacitly
agreed that their position has validity and has shown that limited
building is permissible.
According to another European diplomat, the change in US policy is
a huge shift.
In these meetings the US has indicated areas where Israel cannot
build. Israel has taken that to mean it is permissible to build in
other areas. The US is effectively deciding how the West Bank will
look in the future. Its a huge shift in policy, he added.
Jeff Halper, an Israeli political activist who specializes in Israels
control of the Palestinian territories, said: Effectively a
new road map has been drawn between the US and Israel which the United
Nations, the European Union and Russia do not agree with.
A spokesman for the British embassy in Tel Aviv would not comment
on the change. Our policy is that we support the road map,
he said.
The European diplomat said the EU was institutionally annoyed
at being excluded from discussions, but individual countries had not
reacted angrily to the change.
The US-Israeli deals once again leave the Palestinians out of the
negotiation process. Qureia said he was waiting for confirmation of
the shift in US policy, adding that he would be shocked if it were
true. I cant believe that America is now saying that settlement
expansion is alright, he said. This will destroy the peace
process.
The road map was launched last year and President Bush said he would
ride herd to make sure both parties honored their commitments.
By August the ceasefire had ended, but all parties continued to hold
up the road map as the blueprint for peace. Over the last year, Israel
has embarked on a large building program in the West Bank.
Peace Now, an Israeli pressure group that monitors the settlements,
said a minimum of 3,700 homes were being built in the West Bank.
The Israeli housing ministry has invited tenders for another 1,600
homes and infrastructure works are under way for a new settlement
that will link Maale Adumim with east Jerusalem.
According to the European diplomat, the change in US policy stems
from frustration with Mr Arafat and the Palestinians in not reforming
the Palestinian Authority and preventing violence.
The administration is also furious with the Palestinians for not arresting
those responsible for the killing of three American security guards
in Gaza earlier this year.
The European diplomat said: Bush took the position that until
the Palestinians get serious about security there was no point in
addressing them.
Israeli officials insist that the construction is all part of prior
agreements.
Zalman Shoval, a former Israeli ambassador to the US and an adviser
to Mr Sharon on foreign affairs, said that the road map was not breached
by the West Bank construction, which was in line with previous agreements.
The new construction also does not negate the road map because
our understanding, and also that of the US I think, was that it was
performance based.
Therefore the Israeli commitments would fall into place when
the Palestinians stopped terror, which they have not done, he
said.
Source: Guardian (UK)
Credibility of Afghan vote threatened
by violence, fraud
UN staff calling for pullout
Compiled by Eamon Martin
Aug. 23 (AGR) With battle-scarred Iraq in shambles,
the United States is now trying to showcase war-ravaged Afghanistan
as a potentially vibrant multiparty democracy on the road to political
success.
But United Nations Secretary-General Kofi Annan and several experts
on Afghanistan are warning that the credibility of the upcoming elections
could be in doubt unless there is a significant improvement in security
for the millions of Afghans who have registered to vote.
The security situation in Afghanistan is volatile, having seriously
deteriorated in certain parts of the country, said Annan in
a 20-page report due to be discussed by the UN Security Council this
week.
On Aug. 19, two bombs went off at a UN voter registration office in
Farah City, Afghanistan, injuring six Afghan police, setting vehicles
ablaze and shattering windows, the latest in a string of attacks in
which twelve election workers have been killed.
The next day, the UN staff union called for the United Nations to
withdraw all its personnel from Afghanistan as the country has become
too dangerous to work in. The union said staff should leave the country
until new security measures had been introduced because UN personnel
were likely to become targets in the run-up to elections.
After several postponements prompted mostly by security concerns
and lack of voter registrations the government of President
Hamid Karzai in Kabul decided to hold presidential elections on Oct.
9 and parliamentary elections in April 2005.
To ensure the conditions for free and fair elections, however,
a net increase in international security assistance remains indispensable,
says Annans report.
But Afghan experts say that despite that plea, increased security
may not be forthcoming because of the reluctance of the North Atlantic
Treaty Organization (NATO) to risk its troops in an increasingly hostile
environment characterized by roadside bombs and suicide attacks.
NATO is a military alliance of 26 European nations, the United States,
and Canada.
Kofi Annan, Hamid Karzai, and most of the non-governmental organizations
(NGOs) have been pleading with NATO to expand the International Security
Assistance Force (ISAF) for the past two years, but to no avail,
says Mark Sedra, a research associate at the Bonn International Center
for Conversion (BICC) where he leads a project that monitors and analyzes
security in Afghanistan.
The ISAF has about 6,500 NATO troops in Afghanistan, mostly from Germany
and Canada.
The United States has about 20,000 troops in Afghanistan, but they
are primarily concerned with hunting down fighters of the former ruling
Taliban regime and members of the al-Qaida terrorist network of Osama
bin Laden in the southern mountainous regions of the country. The
Bush administration provides no troops to ISAF.
Frankly speaking, the present environment in Afghanistan is
not conducive for free and fair elections, Sedra said, pointing
out that intimidation will be rampant, as it was during a meeting
of various tribal and ethnic groups, called the Loya Jirgas, held
in 2002.
Jim Ingalls, founding director of the Afghan Womens Mission
who is currently working on a book about US policy in Afghanistan,
said that Annans report is not an exaggeration security
in Afghanistan is worse than ever since the period of 1992-1996, before
the Taliban took power.
It may be even worse than that, he said. There are
too many examples to mention. Just recently Ismael Khan, one of the
warlords, almost lost the province of Herat to another warlord Amanullah
Khan, who was only forced to back down when US Ambassador Zalmay Khalilzad
and US warplanes made an appearance, added Ingalls.
Another indication of serious insecurity, he said, was the decision
of Medecins Sans Frontieres (MSF or Doctors Without Borders) to pull
out of Afghanistan last month, after 24 years of service.
Im also concerned about the quality of the elections themselves.
While there are 17 candidates for president, most are either warlords
or are too afraid to take any real stand against the warlords to make
much difference to the political climate. That was documented in Annans
report, Ingalls added.
Added Sedra, a free and fair election cannot be held in Afghanistan
as long as the major political parties maintain independent, well-armed
militias.
He also warned that a contested election result could lead to widespread
violence. Now that it has become apparent that the election
will be closer than anyone anticipated, the prospect of post-election
violence is very real.
And with evidence mounting of plans for widespread vote-rigging, US
experts say the controversy could emerge as a serious liability for
US President George W. Bushs re-election campaign.
After voter registration centers closed across Afghanistan last weekend,
election officials acknowledged the number of voting cards issued
far exceeded the estimated number of eligible voters and that
the illegal practice of multiple registrations is widespread. United
Nations officials overseeing the elections admit that more than 10
million voting cards have been issued surpassing the estimated
9.8 million eligible voters.
In separate interviews, Afghanis told reporters it was easy to obtain
more than one card. One man who registered six times, using his real
name and photograph, said UN election workers asked him only once
if he had previously registered. A woman said her nephew had been
approached at school numerous times to sell his laminated voting card
and that she knows a woman who obtained 40 cards while cloaked in
a burqa.
Mustafa Durani, country representative for the International Republican
Institute in Kabul, believes more than 1 million Afghans have registered
twice. But he shrugs it off.
Illegal things happen, said Durani, whose Washington-based
group is associated with the US Republican Party.
Soldiers kill civilians at checkpoint
US soldiers sprayed a pickup truck with bullets after it failed to
stop at a roadblock, killing two women and a man, and critically wounding
two other people, the latest in a string of civilian deaths at the
hands of US forces.
The shooting occurred on Aug. 21 on a road in Ghazni province when
the pickup truck ran through a joint US-Afghan military checkpoint,
the US military said. Soldiers searched the pickup but did not find
any weapons.
Im sure that the Americans, like they did after all the
other incidents, will say it was a mistake and a misunderstanding,
but that is no longer an acceptable excuse for us, said Abdul
Shakoor, a 22-year-old telecommunications worker in Kabul.
Local leaders have repeatedly complained of heavy-handed tactics by
US forces, especially during searches that sometimes involve air power
and take place in the dead of night.
In one incident, a US air attack in a Ghazni village on Dec. 6, 2003
killed nine children. The military later apologized.
Sources: Associated Press, BBC, Inter
Press Service, Toronto Star
Indian women press for end to draconian
army powers
By Ranjit Devraj
New Delhi, India, Aug. 19 (IPS) Credit must go to women
if the insurgency-hit north-eastern Indian state of Manipur, bordering
Burma, finally gets rid of the draconian Armed Forces Special Powers
Act or AFSPA, imposed a quarter of a century ago.
Already the women, protesting for more than a month now, have compelled
the provincial government to lift AFSPA, against the wishes of New
Delhi, in the state capital of Imphal. But the hated law remains in
operation in the rest of Manipur and in the neighboring states of
Assam and Nagaland.
The special powers act gives security forces wide scope to shoot suspected
militants on sight with virtual immunity from independent legal inquiry.
It was the AFSPA that enabled the paramilitary Assam Rifles to formally
arrest 30-year-old Thangjam Manorama Devi from her home on July 10
on mere suspicion that she was a member of the banned Peoples
Liberation Army (PLA).
Devis stunned parents were then issued a memo stating that
she was being arrested as required by the Supreme Court. But hours
later her abused and bullet ridden body was found dumped in Maring,
a village outside Imphal.
Since then Imphal has been in flames. On July 15, the rest of the
country was shocked by television images of a group of 12 women stripping
naked in front of the Assam Rifles headquarters outside the historic
Kangla Fort and carrying placards that said Rape us the way
you did Manorama.
We will continue the agitation until the AFSPA is repealed
from the state, declared Ramani Devi, secretary of the powerful
All- Manipur Womens Social Promotion and Development Samaj.
And the bets are that the women of Manipur, who have behind them
a long history of resolutely resisting high-handedness from authorities,
will once again win out.
Exactly a century ago Manipuri women collectively resisted an unfair
levy on rice imposed by the British colonial government and followed
it up in 1913 by another agitation to end forced labour that is still
practiced in neighboring Burma.
Dec. 12 is a state holiday in Manipur in commemoration of Nupi Lan
(womens war) in 1939 when women, agitating against the export
of rice from the state in spite of local shortages, surrounded the
British administrative offices at the Kangla Fort.
Although many of the women were badly wounded by bayonet-wielding
troops, from the Assam Rifles, they refused to lift their siege until
given assurances that the export of rice from the Imphal valley would
be stopped.
In more recent times, Manipuri women have organized themselves as
Meira Paibis (torch bearers), where they present themselves with burning
torches which in turn are held aloft wherever they feel that their
rights as women and mothers are affected.
In Manipur, often called Indias Ireland, only the Meira Paibis
have the moral authority to carry their torches in protest against
whichever side -- armed forces or militant groups -- might have gone
too far in their abuses.
The Meira Paibis have also taken on alcohol and drug abuse and intervened
in family disputes or anything that threatens the social fabric in
Manipur -- whose citizens are not only caught between insurgents and
armed forces but also in heroin trafficking rings over the Burmese
border.
But these days it is the Indian Armed Forces sweeping powers
under AFSPA that is at the receiving end of the groups outrage.
We thought initially that the Supreme Court order requiring
that the arresting authority issue memos was fair. But this has not
stopped custodial killings and Manoramas case is only the latest
in a series, Thokchom Rani, 72-year-old Meira Paibi leader told
reporters in Imphal, last week.
Rani said while she was not opposed to the army taking on the PLA
or a bewildering array of other insurgent groups, she viewed attacks
on innocent civilians, especially women, differently.
Alarmed by the fact that the groups action seems to be gaining
momentum due to widespread support, Union Home Minister Shivraj Patel
announced Aug. 17 that the central government was prepared to sit
down for talks without preconditions.
Opinion is also growing against the AFSPA which, according to Rakesh
Shukla, a well known Supreme Court advocate, is unconstitutional
and impermissible in a democratic polity.
The AFSPA is derived from colonial law but is worse in that it even
gives a corporal in the army the right to open fire or use force to
the extent of causing death if he is of the opinion that it
is necessary to do so for the maintenance of public order. Various
commissions of inquiry have substantiated charges of rape, arson,
and cold-blooded murder by soldiers during operations such as the
one in Mokokchung in neighboring Nagaland in 1994 and another near
Kohima in the state in 1995.
Chandramani Singh, who served earlier as deputy chief minister of
Manipur and currently leads the opposition in the State Assembly told
IPS the AFSPA had failed to suppress insurgency in the state and had
actually proved counter productive as it has caused insurgency-related
activities to increase.
Nepal rebels suspend blockade
Kathmandu, Nepal, Aug. 24 -- Nepals Maoist
rebels have temporarily called off a crippling economic blockade
of the capital effective on Aug. 25, saying the move was in response
to popular appeals.
The indefinite transport blockade has been postponed for one
month [as of] 25 August, a statement from the Maoists said
on Tuesday.
The announcement was made amid clashes with soldiers about 60 kilometers
from Kath-mandu in an area known as Chhahare.
On Aug. 24, at least five soldiers were killed and 24 others unaccounted
for in a clash which flared as Maoist rebels attempted to extend
a seven-day blockade of the capitals key supply route to China.
The rebels, who are fighting to overthrow Nepals monarchy
and control much of the countryside, set off a landmine on a highway
to the Tibetan border.
Casualties
The statement issued by the rebels claimed 24 soldiers had been
killed and a cache of weapons seized.
An army official denied the claim but said about two dozen
soldiers jumped into the Sunkoshi river flowing down from Tibet
as they tried to escape.
We have not reached contact with them, the official
said.
He said the army also saw the rebels taking away 15 bodies but could
not verify if they were killed or injured.
The army was present to try to stop the blockade from taking
place, he said.
Trade route
Nepal each year imports some $72 million worth of goods from China,
mostly manufactured products at prices affordable to the poor in
the agrarian kingdom.
The rebel blockade of Kathmandu, enforced since Aug. 18, largely
through fear rather than force, has sent food prices soaring in
the city of 1.5 million people even though hundreds of trucks continue
to enter and leave daily under military protection.
The blockade has seen little violence or rebel presence although
Maoists gunned down a policeman at a Kathmandu cinema on Saturday
and a pedestrian on Monday.
The rebels, who launched their war in 1996 and run a parallel administration
in many parts of the kingdom, are pushing for peace talks that would
lead to the redrafting of the constitution -- a demand rejected
by the government.
Repeated appeals to the Maoists to end the blockade have fallen
on deaf ears and opposition politicians and industrialists have
pressed the government to declare a unilateral ceasefire to restore
stability.
Negotiations
In an attempt to break the impasse, the government has been in contact
with pro-Maoist students, a cabinet official said Aug. 24.
We have told the students that we will come to the negotiating
table with you provided you insist that your sister organizations
withdraw the blockade, the official said.
Prime Minister Sher Bahadur Deuba has also discussed with his cabinet
whether the government should concede to a major demand for ending
the blockade -- that it stops calling the rebels terrorists,
the official said. No decision had been reached, he said.
Baikuntha Pokharel, a leader of the pro-Maoist student union, confirmed
the government had been in contact but said the leftists first wanted
officials to apologize over the alleged killing of a colleague in
custody and to release others detained, whom the students say are
jailed.
The Maoist rebel organization was founded by former teacher Prachanda,
which means the Fierce One, and is inspired by Chinese revolutionary
Mao Zedong.
The organization became popular when it condemned the government
for major corruption and called for an end to the monarchy.
Peace talks have ended on a sour note on more than one occasion,
due to rebel demands falling on deaf ears.
One of their demands is for the government to stop referring to
them as terrorists, which has increased rebel fears
of being victimized and arrested.
Among its allies are student organizations and other anti-monarch
organizations.
The United States has called for international support to defeat
the Maoists, who are strongly anti-American, and end the insurgency
that has claimed some 10,000 lives since 1996.
Washington has provided almost $21 million in military assistance
to the kingdom, wedged between Asian giants China and India, since
2002 when the rebellion entered a more violent phase.
Source: Al Jazeera
The elusive truth about oil reserve
figures
Analysis by Adam Porter
Aug. 12 Talking about oil, there is little doubt
that around 45-50 percent of it rests in five Middle Eastern countries
Iraq, Iran, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, and the United Arab Emirates.
But how much is there of it?
The question seems straightforward, simplistic even. But just a
cursory glance at the state of the worlds remaining oil leads
one to think otherwise.
It is a truism to say that oil is the most vital energy source currently
known to man. And yet, surprisingly, the foundations of the commoditys
reserve figures are built on geopolitical sand.
Throughout the age of oil, it has suited both governments and corporations
to mislead the public, investors, each other and the marketplace
on such a regular basis that now no one analyst can know the truth.
Indeed it appears most of the governments and corporations no longer
know it themselves, so often have figures been manipulated.
Geologist and oil statistician Jean Laherrere is one of the leading
industry figures who casts doubt on government and corporate figures.
He says, What is needed for reserve definitions is good practice
and good rules, to which every country in the world agrees.
We may be waiting a while for that to happen.
Shells climbdown
Take two straightforward examples. The first is Royal Dutch Shell.
One of the three super majors, this year Shell, as is well known,
shed 23 percent of its reserves almost overnight. Around 4.48 billion
barrels.
Just over 20 percent was in fact discarded in one day. If Shell
were to pump their oil at the rate they are doing today, and if
they were to discover no more oil in that period, Shell would run
out of oil in a decade.
Shell is not alone. El Paso of Houston Texas revised its reserves
down by an amazing 43 percent on Dec. 31, 2003. Forest Corps, which
had announced a new field of 49 million barrels, Redoubt Shoal in
Alaska, revised it down to just eight million a year later.
There are many others. Corporations are of course often listed on
stock markets; big announcements boost share prices. They also hate
leaking information to competitors. Eventually this creates gross
market uncertainty.
Fatih Birol of the International Energy Agency regards todays
high prices as a problem companies and governments can overcome.
Yet even he told us that the need for more transparent and
comprehensive data is obvious. Investment in new fields is also
paramount.
Kuwaits case
Our second example is a nation-state, OPEC member Kuwait. The government
says Kuwaitis hold 10 percent of the worlds total reserves.
Yet in 1985 they were faced with a quandary.
OPEC decided to allow member countries to pump only a certain percentage
of their reserves. The obvious point being the more reserves you
said you had, the more you could pump. The more you could pump,
the more money you earned.
So, overnight Kuwaiti reserves nearly doubled.
Again, Kuwait currently reports its reserves at 94 billion barrels.
Yet it has reported its reserves at 94 billion barrels since 1992.
Unchanged, each and every year. This is despite daily production
and no significant new finds.
Of course Kuwait, like Shell, is not alone. Iraqs reserves
are still those quoted by former president Saddam Hussein. In response
to the 1985 Kuwaiti increase in 1987 Saddam announced that Iraqs
oil reserves were not in fact 47.1 billion barrels but reserves
of 100 billion barrels.
Not only did production and a leaking infrastructure fail to dent
these figures, in fact the opposite occurred. Today they are actually
quoted at 112 billion barrels.
Unreliable data
Energy investment banker Matthew Simmons, Chairman and CEO of Simmons
and Co, a contributor to the Bush-Cheney energy plan, puts it this
way: We still do not have any reliable data on [Iraqs]
two great fields. The most famous one is Kirkuk and we have no new
data on that at all. It is a very old field and the idea that suddenly
Iraq can produce five or six million barrels per day is just a joke.
Its goofy.
Yet OPECs quota-based income stream has meant that Abu Dhabi
(31-92 billion), Venezuela (25-56 bn), Iran (48.8-92.9 billion)
and Saudi Arabia (170-257.5 billion) have also done the same.
And while Saudi Arabias national oil company Saudi Aramco
claims to have 257.5 billion barrels, its recently retired executive
vice president Sadad Al Husseini has said there is in fact 130
billion barrels of proven reserves.
Geologist Laherrere says, OPEC will not change their reporting
as long as quotas will be in force. Only when the supply becomes
short and quotas useless will OPEC accept to report real estimates.
Saudis choice
So who is the one to believe? The best bet is to choose none
of the above. As well as corporate malpractice and OPEC quotas,
political considerations further confuse the situation.
Take the Venezuelanas as an example. They are the fifth biggest
exporter to the world market, supplying around 13 percent of the
daily needs of the US. They are one of OPECs members who are
currently welcoming the high oil prices.
This seems to be mainly due to the economic difficulties Hugo Chavezs
government is experiencing. So an implied scarcity of reserves,
a belief that they are overestimated, may actually suit Venezuela
short term.
Others, like Saudi Arabia, desire price stability and are more complicit
with the consumer nations. But then of course if oil reserve figures
did prove overestimated, then market prices would spike, a recession
would occur, demand would fall and OPEC countries would suddenly
find themselves earning less money.
Audit required
Non-OPEC producer Russia is also a major supplier on the world stage.
One company alone, Yukos, pumps around two percent of the worlds
total daily demand. Yet many of their reserve figures are from the
Soviet era.
Since the collapse of the Soviet Union, the Russian reserve estimate
has fallen by around 30 percent. It was as long ago as 1993 that
a Russian oil minister described his countrys reserves as
strongly exaggerated due to inclusion of reserves and resources
that are neither reliable nor technologically or economically viable.
Simmons, the energy investment banker, puts it more bluntly: I
dont trust the current Russian figures at all. Globally there
needs to be an audit of oil companies. Trouble is there would be
a lot of write-downs. A lot. So no one would agree to that.
So, the five big Middle Eastern countries do hold around half the
worlds remaining oil, of that we can be pretty sure. But how
much there really is of it, how much everyone else has and how long
it is going to last, may be anybodys guess.
Source: Al Jazeera
Audit confirms results of Venezuela
election
Compiled by Shawn Gaynor
Aug. 25 (AGR) A two-day audit aimed at investigating
allegations of fraud in the Aug. 15 presidential recall referendum
confirmed Venezuelan President Hugo Chavezs strong victory.
After comparing a random sample of paper ballots from 150 polling
stations to the results produced by controversial touch-screen voting
machines, the Carter Center and Organization of American States
(OAS) on Aug. 21 reiterated their initial judgment that Chavezs
58 percent win was clean and legitimate.
We, the Carter Center and the OAS, can say the results published
by the National Electoral Council are compatible with all our controls,
said Cesar Gaviria, OAS secretary-general.
Controversy surrounding the election results started when a US firms
exit poll said President Hugo Chavez lost following his resounding
victory. The opposition used this poll to say that voting had been
tampered with by the Chavez government.
Exit Poll Results Show Major Defeat for Chavez,
the survey, conducted by Penn, Schoen & Berland Associates,
asserted even as the Aug. 15 voting was still on. But in fact, the
opposite was true -- Chavez ended up trouncing his enemies and capturing
59 percent of the vote.
Election officials banned publication or broadcast of any exit polls
during the historic vote.
But results of the Penn, Schoen & Berland survey were sent out
by fax and e-mail to media outlets and opposition offices more than
four hours before polls closed. It predicted just the opposite of
what happened, saying 59 percent had voted in favor of recalling
Chavez.
Critics of the exit poll have questioned how it was conducted.
Penn, Schoen & Berland had members of Sumate, a Venezuelan opposition
group that helped organize the recall initiative, do the fieldwork
for the poll, election observers said.
Roberto Abdul, a Sumate official, acknowledged in a telephone interview
that the firm supervised an exit poll carried out by
Sumate.
Chavez has urged the opposition to have the grace to
accept the result and called for national reconciliation.
And some opposition figures have begun saying the referendum result
should be accepted.
In a speech on Aug. 20, Chavez said opposition leaders who refuse
to accept defeat appeared ridiculous in front of the entire
world.
We have to bite the dust of defeat, Manuel Rosales,
governor of Zulia state, was quoted as saying by the Associated
Press news agency.
While the United States remains guarded in its support of President
Hugo Chavez, it has accepted the results of the recent recount of
votes.
In our view, the results of that audit are consistent with
the results announced by the National Electoral Council on August
16th and we understand that the Electoral Council will certify the
final results on August 25th, State Department representative
Adam Ereli said, adding that the US wants to dispel doubts expressed
by the opposition, which leads to the polarization of the country,
which is in nobodys interest.
The opposition has fought a tireless campaign to see Chavez ousted.
The president survived a short-lived coup in April 2002 and a two-month
strike that badly damaged the economy later that year.
The referendum was activated after the opposition collected signatures
from 20 percent of the population a recall mechanism originally
opposed by the opposition when it was inserted into the Venezuelan
constitution by Chavez in 1999.
Sources: AP, BBC, Sun-Sentinel, VenezuelaAnalysis.com
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