No. 293, Aug. 26 - Sept. 1, 2004

SECCIÓN EN ESPAÑOL

WORLD NEWS



To read an article, click on the headline.

Explosions in Bangladesh lead to violent general strike

Maldives unrest worries international community

US deal ‘wrecks Middle East peace’

Credibility of Afghan vote threatened by violence, fraud

Indian women press for end to draconian army powers

Nepal rebels suspend blockade

The elusive truth about oil reserve figures

Audit confirms results of Venezuela election

 









Explosions in Bangladesh lead to violent general strike

Compiled by Josh Ferguson

Aug. 25 (AGR)-- Wed., Aug. 25 marked the end of a bloody two-day general strike initiated by Bangladesh’s Awami League, in protest of a deadly grenade attack on that group’s Aug. 21 rally.

The 200,000 person assembly was called to protest recent political violence in the country. Led by former prime minister Sheikh Hasina Wajed, the Awami League blames the Bangladesh Nationalist Party, the country’s current ruling party, for fostering political violence through corruption and incompetence. Wajed was midway through an impassioned speech when assailants threw thirteen hand grenades, killing 19 and injuring 200. Wajed herself suffered only minor injuries from bullets fired on her car as she was leaving. Her bodyguard was killed.

“A series of grenades went off at five- to seven-second intervals giving the attackers smoke cover; as she was rushed away by bodyguards, her bullet-proof car was hit by at least seven bullets,” said Sabir Husayn Chowdhury, Sheikh Hasina’s political secretary.

“Only the fact the vehicle was bullet-proof saved her,” he said, “it was total carnage, worse than a scene from a war film, with bodies, limbs and blood everywhere.”

In response to the attack, the Awami League called for a two day general strike for Aug. 24 and Aug. 25 in protest of the attack. Demands were made that the current prime minister, Khaleda Zia, resign. The strike brought violence all across Bangladesh, as crowds of Wajed supporters torched commuter trains, destroyed parked cars, and looted government buildings. The protest shut down shops and schools and disrupted traffic across the country, and the capital city of Dhaka had over 7,000 police and paramilitary on hand to subdue protests there. Over 200 people were arrested, and many more were tear gassed and clubbed with police batons. Witnesses reported that the violence broke out after police tried to block hundreds of protesters from taking to the streets. Demonstrators waved clenched fists and shouted, “Down with the government!”

The strike came to an early end on Aug. 25, closing at 1:00pm instead of at sunset, as was originally planned. The early close was arranged to enable supporters to attend the funeral of Ivy Rahman, head of the Awami League’s women’s wing and veteran grassroots leader. Rahman died on Aug. 24 after losing her legs in Saturday’s attack.

About 15,000 party supporters, reciting verses from the Koran, accompanied Rahman’s wooden, flower-strewn coffin to a cemetery after prayers at Dhaka’s Baitul Mokarram mosque. Police in riot gear stood behind steel barricades as mourners poured out of the mosque, but there was no reported violence.

Although the strike has come to an end, further protests are planned for Aug. 26.

On Aug. 25, the widely read Bengali newspaper, Prothom Alo, reported that a group calling itself Himatul Zihad had claimed responsibility for the attacks, and had said in an e-mail that it was planning a fresh attempt on Sheikh Hasina’s life within a week.

“Don’t think that Sheikh Hasina is out of danger. We have failed to use our opportunity, but to fulfill our goal, now we are alert,” the message reportedly read. “Tell her to be prepared, we are coming and within the next seven days we will reach our goal. This is our promise.”

Police have said that they have not heard of the group Himatul Zihad, but are currently investigating.

US Secretary of State Colin Powell issued a statement in Washington over the weekend condemning the attack and calling for calm.

“The perpetrators of this heinous act clearly intend to undermine democracy in Bangladesh,” Powell said. “They must not succeed. The US urges all parties to act with restraint,” he added.

Bangladesh has seen a number of bombings in recent years at opposition rallies, in cinemas, concerts, and minority religious institutions. Earlier this month, two explosions within a week in the city claimed one life each. In June, another explosion killed one person and injured about 50 others. And in May, a bomb exploded outside a mosque in Sylhet, killing three people, while in January four people died in a blast at a 700-year-old shrine.

In the past five years, at least 134 people have died in bombings, Dhaka’s New Age daily said. Two Bangladeshi presidents were assassinated in military coups and there have been 19 failed coups since independence from Pakistan in 1971.

Sources: Al jazeera, AFP, AP, Independent (UK), Reuters

Maldives unrest worries international community

By Feizal Samath

Colombo, Maldives, Aug. 19 (IPS)— Maldives President Maumoon Abdul Gayoom, Asia’s longest running autocratic leader, is under international pressure to stop the crackdown on pro-democracy protesters in the Indian Ocean archipelago.

Colombo-based diplomats, who declined to be named, said a high-powered European Union delegation from EU-member missions based in Colombo was expected to fly to the capital Male at the weekend to urge the Maldives government to stop its harassment of political opponents.

Gayoom’s government, which does not allow opposition political parties in the country, justified the crackdown and the state of emergency saying it was in danger of being toppled.

“Gayoom has to step down. That’s the only way,” Mohamed Latheef, founder and spokesperson for the Maldivian Democratic Party (MDP), told IPS. The MDP is a political party in exile based in the Sri Lankan capital -- which is just an hour’s flight away from Male.

Latheef’s call has been echoed by many young Maldivians, some of whom recently carried banners saying, “Gayoom Should Quit” — a rare sight in a nation of some 340,000 people living for 25 years under a one-party government headed by Gayoom.

The Maldives government ordered a crackdown after political dissidence snowballed last week when protesters took to the streets demanding democracy and calling for the release of all political prisoners. Curfew has been declared in the Indian Ocean archipelago, which is now under a state of emergency.

The British-owned telecommunications firm, Cable and Wireless — which handles Internet access in the Maldives — has confirmed that the government severed all internet connections on Aug. 13.

“This grave and irresponsible step is unprecedented anywhere in the world and President Gayoom has embarked on a spiral of repression that is extremely worrying,” the Paris-based media watchdog Reporters Sans Frontieres said in a statement.

Some members of Parliament are among the 90 people believed to have been arrested after the demonstrations. The former secretary-general of the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC), Ibrahim Husein Zaki, is one of those currently detained by Gayoom’s government.

Both Britain and the United States on Aug. 17 criticized the crackdown and raised concerns about the state of emergency.

A Foreign Office statement said the British government was “concerned by reports of large numbers of arrests, including of members of the Maldives parliament.”

The US government expressed concern that recent unrest in the Maldives would undermine the Indian Ocean archipelago’s commitment to democratic reforms, and called for those arrested during anti-government demonstrations to be treated humanely.

“The United States notes with concern recent unrest in the Maldives connected to the Aug. 12-13 demonstrations on the capital island, Male,” said a State Department statement.

“We hope that the government of Maldives’ reaction to these demonstrations, including subsequent arrests of protesters and political leaders will not undermine the process of political and constitutional reform to which the government of the Maldives has committed itself,” the statement added.

“The United States also calls for all detainees to be treated humanely, fairly, and in accordance with the Maldivian Constitution and international norms of human rights,” Deputy State Department Spokesman Adam Ereli said in the statement.

Latheef, a former member of Parliament, founded the MDP in Colombo after his 31-year-old activist daughter was arrested by police on Sept. 21, 2003 for wearing a T-shirt which said “Stop Brutality.”

He took the first flight out of Male the next day and has not returned since fearing that he would be jailed for forming the pro-democracy party which has the support of many of the country’s top residents including MPs, businessmen, civil society activists, and some sections of the judiciary.

“Gayoom should pave the way for democracy and change,” he said adding that while the pro-democracy movement is moving towards an ouster of the Maldivian president it was not out for vengeance.

“We are looking at the South African-type truth and reconciliation model. We want a peaceful transition,” Latheef pointed out.

Following large-scale demonstrations calling for democratic reforms in September 2003, Gayoom announced measures to reform the political and judicial systems and bring the criminal justice system into conformity with fair trial standards.

Tensions, however, emerged in July when many MPs accused Gayoom of reneging on his September 2003 promises. These tensions then culminated into last week’s mass demonstrations.

But observers point to the fact that unless economic pressure is exerted on Maldives, it will be business-as-usual for Gayoom.

Gayoom has attributed the economic boom since he took office to his policy of encouraging wealthy Westerners to stay at the Maldives’ upmarket island resorts.

Maldives’ economy is dependent on tourism, which accounts for 20 percent of GDP and brings in 60 percent of foreign exchange revenue.

But last week’s demonstrations have had little impact on tourist arrivals. Visitors who arrive at the country’s only airport situated on another small island near Male, are whisked by boat or seaplanes to their destinations far away from the capital.

“Tourism has been unaffected by the incidents in Male,” noted Gehan Perera, a spokesman for Sri Lanka’s Aitken Spence group which has a couple of top-class resorts in the Maldives.

“However if the situation escalates and if there is an international dimension, then there would be some problems,” Perera told IPS.

Niranjan Deva Addithya, member of the European Parliament, urged tourists not to visit the Maldives saying that by doing so they would be supporting a “tyrannical regime.”

“The 77,400 British, 106,451 Italian, and 77,642 German tourists, who visited the Maldives in the past year alone, paying an average of $200 a night in plush hotels, are supporting a tyrannical regime while 329,000 people are scrounging out an existence on less than one dollar a day,” the Sri Lankan-born MP who lives in Britain was quoted as saying.

US deal ‘wrecks Middle East peace’

By Conal Urquhart

Tel Aviv, Israel, Aug. 23— The US was yesterday accused by Palestinian leaders of destroying hopes for peace in the Middle East by giving its covert support to Israel’s expansion of controversial settlements in the West Bank.

American officials are privately admitting they have abandoned their demands that Israel freeze settlement activity, and have given Jerusalem tacit permission to build thousands of new homes on the disputed land.

Palestinians fear that the expansion of settlements will make it impossible to establish a viable state on the land Israel took from Jordan in the 1967 war.

Ahmed Qureia, the Palestinian prime minister, said the US position would destroy the peace process, and Amr Moussa, secretary general of the Arab League, said America’s unilateral redrawing of the road map was “a very grave development.”

Publicly, the US still upholds the road map, which calls for a freeze on all settlement activity, including natural growth. But the administration, partly out of frustration with Yasser Arafat, has adopted a position more sympathetic to Israel.

The US has effectively endorsed the Israeli prime minister Ariel Sharon’s view of the division of the West Bank. Sharon believes Israel should pull out of Gaza and keep the large settlement blocks such as Ariel, Gush Etzion and Ma’ale Adumim.

The first indication of a shift in US policy happened in March when President George W. Bush and Sharon exchanged letters. The Israeli leader said he planned to withdraw from settlements in Gaza and the northern West Bank and Bush replied that the US recognized that the Israeli population centers (the large settlements) in the West Bank would remain Israeli and would not become part of a Palestinian state.

Then in a series of meetings between Israeli and US officials, particularly Condoleezza Rice, the national security adviser, and Dov Weissglas, Sharon’s adviser, maps were drawn indicating where construction could take place.

The latest sign of a significant move came last week when Israel invited tenders to build more than 1,000 homes in the West Bank. The White House did not criticize the announcement.

A western diplomat said yesterday: “The road map calls for a freeze in all settlement activity. End of story.

“The Israelis have never accepted that and the US has tacitly agreed that their position has validity and has shown that limited building is permissible.”

According to another European diplomat, the change in US policy is a “huge shift.”

“In these meetings the US has indicated areas where Israel cannot build. Israel has taken that to mean it is permissible to build in other areas. The US is effectively deciding how the West Bank will look in the future. It’s a huge shift in policy,” he added.

Jeff Halper, an Israeli political activist who specializes in Israel’s control of the Palestinian territories, said: “Effectively a new road map has been drawn between the US and Israel which the United Nations, the European Union and Russia do not agree with.”

A spokesman for the British embassy in Tel Aviv would not comment on the change. “Our policy is that we support the road map,” he said.

The European diplomat said the EU was “institutionally annoyed” at being excluded from discussions, but individual countries had not reacted angrily to the change.

The US-Israeli deals once again leave the Palestinians out of the negotiation process. Qureia said he was waiting for confirmation of the shift in US policy, adding that he would be shocked if it were true. “I can’t believe that America is now saying that settlement expansion is alright,” he said. “This will destroy the peace process.”

The road map was launched last year and President Bush said he would “ride herd” to make sure both parties honored their commitments.

By August the ceasefire had ended, but all parties continued to hold up the road map as the blueprint for peace. Over the last year, Israel has embarked on a large building program in the West Bank.

Peace Now, an Israeli pressure group that monitors the settlements, said a minimum of 3,700 homes were being built in the West Bank.

The Israeli housing ministry has invited tenders for another 1,600 homes and infrastructure works are under way for a new settlement that will link Ma’ale Adumim with east Jerusalem.

According to the European diplomat, the change in US policy stems from frustration with Mr Arafat and the Palestinians in not reforming the Palestinian Authority and preventing violence.

The administration is also furious with the Palestinians for not arresting those responsible for the killing of three American security guards in Gaza earlier this year.

The European diplomat said: “Bush took the position that until the Palestinians get serious about security there was no point in addressing them.”

Israeli officials insist that the construction is all part of prior agreements.

Zalman Shoval, a former Israeli ambassador to the US and an adviser to Mr Sharon on foreign affairs, said that the road map was not breached by the West Bank construction, which was in line with previous agreements.

“The new construction also does not negate the road map because our understanding, and also that of the US I think, was that it was performance based.

“Therefore the Israeli commitments would fall into place when the Palestinians stopped terror, which they have not done,” he said.

Source: Guardian (UK)

Credibility of Afghan vote threatened by violence, fraud
UN staff calling for pullout

Compiled by Eamon Martin

Aug. 23 (AGR)— With battle-scarred Iraq in shambles, the United States is now trying to showcase war-ravaged Afghanistan as a potentially vibrant multiparty democracy on the road to political success.

But United Nations Secretary-General Kofi Annan and several experts on Afghanistan are warning that the credibility of the upcoming elections could be in doubt unless there is a significant improvement in security for the millions of Afghans who have registered to vote.

“The security situation in Afghanistan is volatile, having seriously deteriorated in certain parts of the country,” said Annan in a 20-page report due to be discussed by the UN Security Council this week.

On Aug. 19, two bombs went off at a UN voter registration office in Farah City, Afghanistan, injuring six Afghan police, setting vehicles ablaze and shattering windows, the latest in a string of attacks in which twelve election workers have been killed.

The next day, the UN staff union called for the United Nations to withdraw all its personnel from Afghanistan as the country has become too dangerous to work in. The union said staff should leave the country until new security measures had been introduced because UN personnel were likely to become targets in the run-up to elections.

After several postponements — prompted mostly by security concerns and lack of voter registrations — the government of President Hamid Karzai in Kabul decided to hold presidential elections on Oct. 9 and parliamentary elections in April 2005.

“To ensure the conditions for free and fair elections, however, a net increase in international security assistance remains indispensable,” says Annan’s report.

But Afghan experts say that despite that plea, increased security may not be forthcoming because of the reluctance of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) to risk its troops in an increasingly hostile environment characterized by roadside bombs and suicide attacks.

NATO is a military alliance of 26 European nations, the United States, and Canada.

“Kofi Annan, Hamid Karzai, and most of the non-governmental organizations (NGOs) have been pleading with NATO to expand the International Security Assistance Force (ISAF) for the past two years, but to no avail,” says Mark Sedra, a research associate at the Bonn International Center for Conversion (BICC) where he leads a project that monitors and analyzes security in Afghanistan.

The ISAF has about 6,500 NATO troops in Afghanistan, mostly from Germany and Canada.

The United States has about 20,000 troops in Afghanistan, but they are primarily concerned with hunting down fighters of the former ruling Taliban regime and members of the al-Qaida terrorist network of Osama bin Laden in the southern mountainous regions of the country. The Bush administration provides no troops to ISAF.

“Frankly speaking, the present environment in Afghanistan is not conducive for free and fair elections,” Sedra said, pointing out that intimidation will be rampant, as it was during a meeting of various tribal and ethnic groups, called the Loya Jirgas, held in 2002.

Jim Ingalls, founding director of the Afghan Women’s Mission who is currently working on a book about US policy in Afghanistan, said that Annan’s report is not an exaggeration — security in Afghanistan is worse than ever since the period of 1992-1996, before the Taliban took power.

“It may be even worse than that,” he said. “There are too many examples to mention. Just recently Ismael Khan, one of the warlords, almost lost the province of Herat to another warlord Amanullah Khan, who was only forced to back down when US Ambassador Zalmay Khalilzad and US warplanes made an appearance,” added Ingalls.

Another indication of serious insecurity, he said, was the decision of Medecins Sans Frontieres (MSF or Doctors Without Borders) to pull out of Afghanistan last month, after 24 years of service.

“I’m also concerned about the quality of the elections themselves. While there are 17 candidates for president, most are either warlords or are too afraid to take any real stand against the warlords to make much difference to the political climate. That was documented in Annan’s report,” Ingalls added.

Added Sedra, “a free and fair election cannot be held in Afghanistan as long as the major political parties maintain independent, well-armed militias.”

He also warned that a contested election result could lead to widespread violence. “Now that it has become apparent that the election will be closer than anyone anticipated, the prospect of post-election violence is very real.”

And with evidence mounting of plans for widespread vote-rigging, US experts say the controversy could emerge as a serious liability for US President George W. Bush’s re-election campaign.

After voter registration centers closed across Afghanistan last weekend, election officials acknowledged the number of voting cards issued far exceeded the estimated number of eligible voters — and that the illegal practice of multiple registrations is widespread. United Nations officials overseeing the elections admit that more than 10 million voting cards have been issued — surpassing the estimated 9.8 million eligible voters.

In separate interviews, Afghanis told reporters it was easy to obtain more than one card. One man who registered six times, using his real name and photograph, said UN election workers asked him only once if he had previously registered. A woman said her nephew had been approached at school numerous times to sell his laminated voting card and that she knows a woman who obtained 40 cards while cloaked in a burqa.

Mustafa Durani, country representative for the International Republican Institute in Kabul, believes more than 1 million Afghans have registered twice. But he shrugs it off.

“Illegal things happen,” said Durani, whose Washington-based group is associated with the US Republican Party.

Soldiers kill civilians at checkpoint

US soldiers sprayed a pickup truck with bullets after it failed to stop at a roadblock, killing two women and a man, and critically wounding two other people, the latest in a string of civilian deaths at the hands of US forces.

The shooting occurred on Aug. 21 on a road in Ghazni province when the pickup truck ran through a joint US-Afghan military checkpoint, the US military said. Soldiers searched the pickup but did not find any weapons.

“I’m sure that the Americans, like they did after all the other incidents, will say it was a mistake and a misunderstanding, but that is no longer an acceptable excuse for us,” said Abdul Shakoor, a 22-year-old telecommunications worker in Kabul.

Local leaders have repeatedly complained of heavy-handed tactics by US forces, especially during searches that sometimes involve air power and take place in the dead of night.

In one incident, a US air attack in a Ghazni village on Dec. 6, 2003 killed nine children. The military later apologized.

Sources: Associated Press, BBC, Inter Press Service, Toronto Star

Indian women press for end to draconian army powers

By Ranjit Devraj

New Delhi, India, Aug. 19 (IPS)— Credit must go to women if the insurgency-hit north-eastern Indian state of Manipur, bordering Burma, finally gets rid of the draconian Armed Forces Special Powers Act or AFSPA, imposed a quarter of a century ago.

Already the women, protesting for more than a month now, have compelled the provincial government to lift AFSPA, against the wishes of New Delhi, in the state capital of Imphal. But the hated law remains in operation in the rest of Manipur and in the neighboring states of Assam and Nagaland.

The special powers act gives security forces wide scope to shoot suspected militants on sight with virtual immunity from independent legal inquiry.

It was the AFSPA that enabled the paramilitary Assam Rifles to formally arrest 30-year-old Thangjam Manorama Devi from her home on July 10 on mere suspicion that she was a member of the banned People’s Liberation Army (PLA).

Devi’s stunned parents were then issued a memo stating that she was being arrested as required by the Supreme Court. But hours later her abused and bullet ridden body was found dumped in Maring, a village outside Imphal.

Since then Imphal has been in flames. On July 15, the rest of the country was shocked by television images of a group of 12 women stripping naked in front of the Assam Rifles headquarters outside the historic Kangla Fort and carrying placards that said “Rape us the way you did Manorama.”

“We will continue the agitation until the AFSPA is repealed from the state,” declared Ramani Devi, secretary of the powerful All- Manipur Women’s Social Promotion and Development Samaj.

And the bets are that the women of Manipur, who have behind them a long history of resolutely resisting high-handedness from authorities, will once again win out.

Exactly a century ago Manipuri women collectively resisted an unfair levy on rice imposed by the British colonial government and followed it up in 1913 by another agitation to end forced labour that is still practiced in neighboring Burma.

Dec. 12 is a state holiday in Manipur in commemoration of Nupi Lan (women’s war) in 1939 when women, agitating against the export of rice from the state in spite of local shortages, surrounded the British administrative offices at the Kangla Fort.

Although many of the women were badly wounded by bayonet-wielding troops, from the Assam Rifles, they refused to lift their siege until given assurances that the export of rice from the Imphal valley would be stopped.

In more recent times, Manipuri women have organized themselves as Meira Paibis (torch bearers), where they present themselves with burning torches which in turn are held aloft wherever they feel that their rights as women and mothers are affected.

In Manipur, often called India’s Ireland, only the Meira Paibis have the moral authority to carry their torches in protest against whichever side -- armed forces or militant groups -- might have gone too far in their abuses.

The Meira Paibis have also taken on alcohol and drug abuse and intervened in family disputes or anything that threatens the social fabric in Manipur -- whose citizens are not only caught between insurgents and armed forces but also in heroin trafficking rings over the Burmese border.

But these days it is the Indian Armed Forces’ sweeping powers under AFSPA that is at the receiving end of the group’s outrage.

“We thought initially that the Supreme Court order requiring that the arresting authority issue memos was fair. But this has not stopped custodial killings and Manorama’s case is only the latest in a series,” Thokchom Rani, 72-year-old Meira Paibi leader told reporters in Imphal, last week.

Rani said while she was not opposed to the army taking on the PLA or a bewildering array of other insurgent groups, she viewed attacks on innocent civilians, especially women, differently.

Alarmed by the fact that the group’s action seems to be gaining momentum due to widespread support, Union Home Minister Shivraj Patel announced Aug. 17 that the central government was prepared to sit down for talks “without preconditions.”

Opinion is also growing against the AFSPA which, according to Rakesh Shukla, a well known Supreme Court advocate, is “unconstitutional and impermissible in a democratic polity.”

The AFSPA is derived from colonial law but is worse in that it even gives a corporal in the army the right to open fire or use force to the extent of causing death “if he is of the opinion that it is necessary to do so for the maintenance of public order.” Various commissions of inquiry have substantiated charges of rape, arson, and cold-blooded murder by soldiers during operations such as the one in Mokokchung in neighboring Nagaland in 1994 and another near Kohima in the state in 1995.

Chandramani Singh, who served earlier as deputy chief minister of Manipur and currently leads the opposition in the State Assembly told IPS the AFSPA had failed to suppress insurgency in the state and had “actually proved counter productive as it has caused insurgency-related activities to increase.”

Nepal rebels suspend blockade

Kathmandu, Nepal, Aug. 24 -- Nepal’s Maoist rebels have temporarily called off a crippling economic blockade of the capital effective on Aug. 25, saying the move was in response to popular appeals.

“The indefinite transport blockade has been postponed for one month [as of] 25 August,” a statement from the Maoists said on Tuesday.

The announcement was made amid clashes with soldiers about 60 kilometers from Kath-mandu in an area known as Chhahare.

On Aug. 24, at least five soldiers were killed and 24 others unaccounted for in a clash which flared as Maoist rebels attempted to extend a seven-day blockade of the capital’s key supply route to China.

The rebels, who are fighting to overthrow Nepal’s monarchy and control much of the countryside, set off a landmine on a highway to the Tibetan border.

Casualties

The statement issued by the rebels claimed 24 soldiers had been killed and a cache of weapons seized.

An army official denied the claim but said “about two dozen” soldiers jumped into the Sunkoshi river flowing down from Tibet as they tried to escape.

“We have not reached contact with them,” the official said.

He said the army also saw the rebels taking away 15 bodies but could not verify if they were killed or injured.

“The army was present to try to stop the blockade from taking place,” he said.

Trade route

Nepal each year imports some $72 million worth of goods from China, mostly manufactured products at prices affordable to the poor in the agrarian kingdom.

The rebel blockade of Kathmandu, enforced since Aug. 18, largely through fear rather than force, has sent food prices soaring in the city of 1.5 million people even though hundreds of trucks continue to enter and leave daily under military protection.

The blockade has seen little violence or rebel presence although Maoists gunned down a policeman at a Kathmandu cinema on Saturday and a pedestrian on Monday.

The rebels, who launched their war in 1996 and run a parallel administration in many parts of the kingdom, are pushing for peace talks that would lead to the redrafting of the constitution -- a demand rejected by the government.

Repeated appeals to the Maoists to end the blockade have fallen on deaf ears and opposition politicians and industrialists have pressed the government to declare a unilateral ceasefire to restore stability.

Negotiations

In an attempt to break the impasse, the government has been in contact with pro-Maoist students, a cabinet official said Aug. 24.

“We have told the students that we will come to the negotiating table with you provided you insist that your sister organizations withdraw the blockade,” the official said.

Prime Minister Sher Bahadur Deuba has also discussed with his cabinet whether the government should concede to a major demand for ending the blockade -- that it stops calling the rebels “terrorists,” the official said. No decision had been reached, he said.

Baikuntha Pokharel, a leader of the pro-Maoist student union, confirmed the government had been in contact but said the leftists first wanted officials to apologize over the alleged killing of a colleague in custody and to release others detained, whom the students say are jailed.

The Maoist rebel organization was founded by former teacher Prachanda, which means the Fierce One, and is inspired by Chinese revolutionary Mao Zedong.

The organization became popular when it condemned the government for major corruption and called for an end to the monarchy.

Peace talks have ended on a sour note on more than one occasion, due to rebel demands falling on deaf ears.

One of their demands is for the government to stop referring to them as “terrorists”, which has increased rebel fears of being victimized and arrested.

Among its allies are student organizations and other anti-monarch organizations.

The United States has called for international support to defeat the Maoists, who are strongly anti-American, and end the insurgency that has claimed some 10,000 lives since 1996.

Washington has provided almost $21 million in military assistance to the kingdom, wedged between Asian giants China and India, since 2002 when the rebellion entered a more violent phase.

Source: Al Jazeera

The elusive truth about oil reserve figures

Analysis by Adam Porter

Aug. 12 — Talking about oil, there is little doubt that around 45-50 percent of it rests in five Middle Eastern countries — Iraq, Iran, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, and the United Arab Emirates. But how much is there of it?

The question seems straightforward, simplistic even. But just a cursory glance at the state of the world’s remaining oil leads one to think otherwise.

It is a truism to say that oil is the most vital energy source currently known to man. And yet, surprisingly, the foundations of the commodity’s “reserve” figures are built on geopolitical sand.

Throughout the age of oil, it has suited both governments and corporations to mislead the public, investors, each other and the marketplace on such a regular basis that now no one analyst can know the truth.

Indeed it appears most of the governments and corporations no longer know it themselves, so often have figures been manipulated.

Geologist and oil statistician Jean Laherrere is one of the leading industry figures who casts doubt on government and corporate figures. He says, “What is needed for reserve definitions is good practice and good rules, to which every country in the world agrees.”

We may be waiting a while for that to happen.

Shell’s climbdown

Take two straightforward examples. The first is Royal Dutch Shell. One of the three super majors, this year Shell, as is well known, shed 23 percent of its reserves almost overnight. Around 4.48 billion barrels.

Just over 20 percent was in fact discarded in one day. If Shell were to pump their oil at the rate they are doing today, and if they were to discover no more oil in that period, Shell would run out of oil in a decade.

Shell is not alone. El Paso of Houston Texas revised its reserves down by an amazing 43 percent on Dec. 31, 2003. Forest Corps, which had announced a new field of 49 million barrels, Redoubt Shoal in Alaska, revised it down to just eight million a year later.

There are many others. Corporations are of course often listed on stock markets; big announcements boost share prices. They also hate leaking information to competitors. Eventually this creates gross market uncertainty.

Fatih Birol of the International Energy Agency regards today’s high prices as a problem companies and governments can overcome. Yet even he told us that “the need for more transparent and comprehensive data is obvious. Investment in new fields is also paramount.”

Kuwait’s case

Our second example is a nation-state, OPEC member Kuwait. The government says Kuwaitis “hold 10 percent of the world’s total reserves.” Yet in 1985 they were faced with a quandary.

OPEC decided to allow member countries to pump only a certain percentage of their reserves. The obvious point being the more reserves you said you had, the more you could pump. The more you could pump, the more money you earned.

So, overnight Kuwaiti reserves nearly doubled.

Again, Kuwait currently reports its reserves at 94 billion barrels. Yet it has reported its reserves at 94 billion barrels since 1992. Unchanged, each and every year. This is despite daily production and no significant new finds.

Of course Kuwait, like Shell, is not alone. Iraq’s reserves are still those quoted by former president Saddam Hussein. In response to the 1985 Kuwaiti increase in 1987 Saddam announced that Iraq’s oil reserves were not in fact 47.1 billion barrels but “reserves of 100 billion barrels.”

Not only did production and a leaking infrastructure fail to dent these figures, in fact the opposite occurred. Today they are actually quoted at 112 billion barrels.

Unreliable data

Energy investment banker Matthew Simmons, Chairman and CEO of Simmons and Co, a contributor to the Bush-Cheney energy plan, puts it this way: “We still do not have any reliable data on [Iraq’s] two great fields. The most famous one is Kirkuk and we have no new data on that at all. It is a very old field and the idea that suddenly Iraq can produce five or six million barrels per day is just a joke. It’s goofy.”

Yet OPEC’s quota-based income stream has meant that Abu Dhabi (31-92 billion), Venezuela (25-56 bn), Iran (48.8-92.9 billion) and Saudi Arabia (170-257.5 billion) have also done the same.

And while Saudi Arabia’s national oil company Saudi Aramco claims to have 257.5 billion barrels, its recently retired executive vice president Sadad Al Husseini has said there is in fact “130 billion barrels of proven reserves.”

Geologist Laherrere says, “OPEC will not change their reporting as long as quotas will be in force. Only when the supply becomes short and quotas useless will OPEC accept to report real estimates.”

Saudis’ choice


So who is the one to believe? The best bet is to choose “none of the above.” As well as corporate malpractice and OPEC quotas, political considerations further confuse the situation.

Take the Venezuelanas as an example. They are the fifth biggest exporter to the world market, supplying around 13 percent of the daily needs of the US. They are one of OPEC’s members who are currently welcoming the high oil prices.

This seems to be mainly due to the economic difficulties Hugo Chavez’s government is experiencing. So an implied scarcity of reserves, a belief that they are overestimated, may actually suit Venezuela short term.

Others, like Saudi Arabia, desire price stability and are more complicit with the consumer nations. But then of course if oil reserve figures did prove overestimated, then market prices would spike, a recession would occur, demand would fall and OPEC countries would suddenly find themselves earning less money.

Audit required


Non-OPEC producer Russia is also a major supplier on the world stage. One company alone, Yukos, pumps around two percent of the world’s total daily demand. Yet many of their reserve figures are from the Soviet era.

Since the collapse of the Soviet Union, the Russian reserve estimate has fallen by around 30 percent. It was as long ago as 1993 that a Russian oil minister described his country’s reserves as “strongly exaggerated due to inclusion of reserves and resources that are neither reliable nor technologically or economically viable.”

Simmons, the energy investment banker, puts it more bluntly: “I don’t trust the current Russian figures at all. Globally there needs to be an audit of oil companies. Trouble is there would be a lot of write-downs. A lot. So no one would agree to that.”

So, the five big Middle Eastern countries do hold around half the world’s remaining oil, of that we can be pretty sure. But how much there really is of it, how much everyone else has and how long it is going to last, may be anybody’s guess.

Source: Al Jazeera

Audit confirms results of Venezuela election

Compiled by Shawn Gaynor

Aug. 25 (AGR)— A two-day audit aimed at investigating allegations of fraud in the Aug. 15 presidential recall referendum confirmed Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez’s strong victory.

After comparing a random sample of paper ballots from 150 polling stations to the results produced by controversial touch-screen voting machines, the Carter Center and Organization of American States (OAS) on Aug. 21 reiterated their initial judgment that Chavez’s 58 percent win was clean and legitimate.

“We, the Carter Center and the OAS, can say the results published by the National Electoral Council are compatible with all our controls,” said Cesar Gaviria, OAS secretary-general.

Controversy surrounding the election results started when a US firm’s exit poll said President Hugo Chavez lost following his resounding victory. The opposition used this poll to say that voting had been tampered with by the Chavez government.

“Exit Poll Results Show Major Defeat for Chavez,’’ the survey, conducted by Penn, Schoen & Berland Associates, asserted even as the Aug. 15 voting was still on. But in fact, the opposite was true -- Chavez ended up trouncing his enemies and capturing 59 percent of the vote.

Election officials banned publication or broadcast of any exit polls during the historic vote.

But results of the Penn, Schoen & Berland survey were sent out by fax and e-mail to media outlets and opposition offices more than four hours before polls closed. It predicted just the opposite of what happened, saying 59 percent had voted in favor of recalling Chavez.

Critics of the exit poll have questioned how it was conducted.

Penn, Schoen & Berland had members of Sumate, a Venezuelan opposition group that helped organize the recall initiative, do the fieldwork for the poll, election observers said.

Roberto Abdul, a Sumate official, acknowledged in a telephone interview that the firm “supervised” an exit poll carried out by Sumate.

Chavez has urged the opposition to have the “grace” to accept the result and called for national reconciliation.

And some opposition figures have begun saying the referendum result should be accepted.

In a speech on Aug. 20, Chavez said opposition leaders who refuse to accept defeat appeared “ridiculous in front of the entire world.”

“We have to bite the dust of defeat,” Manuel Rosales, governor of Zulia state, was quoted as saying by the Associated Press news agency.

While the United States remains guarded in its support of President Hugo Chavez, it has accepted the results of the recent recount of votes.

“In our view, the results of that audit are consistent with the results announced by the National Electoral Council on August 16th and we understand that the Electoral Council will certify the final results on August 25th,” State Department representative Adam Ereli said, adding that the US wants to dispel doubts expressed by the opposition, which leads to the polarization of the country, “which is in nobody’s interest.”

The opposition has fought a tireless campaign to see Chavez ousted. The president survived a short-lived coup in April 2002 and a two-month strike that badly damaged the economy later that year.

The referendum was activated after the opposition collected signatures from 20 percent of the population — a recall mechanism originally opposed by the opposition when it was inserted into the Venezuelan constitution by Chavez in 1999.

Sources: AP, BBC, Sun-Sentinel, VenezuelaAnalysis.com